The fall of Haqqani

Ambassador Husain Haqqani's resignation on Tuesday, amidst allegations of a secret memo seeking the US' help to avert a coup in return for a string of promises, may have helped temporarily control the whirlwind crises developing over the last few weeks in Pakistan. Yet by the looks of the political climate in the country, the scandal is far from over and may haunt the corridors of power till the next elections.

The expose has rocked the government's foundation and has given its political opponents, especially the increasingly popular Imran Khan, even more fodder for a potentially successful campaign against the government.But more importantly, the scandal has also brought, yet once again, the civil-military imbalance in this country under sharp focus.

The PPP government, which faced and miraculously survived repeated political crises in its more than three years in office, is now again on the back-foot as all sorts of accusations are being hurled at it.The scandal seems to have put President Zardari in a tight spot amid allegations about his involvement in the conspiracy and Haqqani's general perception of being closely associated with the president. This was fairly indicative as the troika's meeting with Haqqani, at which the ISI chief General Shuja Pasha was also present, took place at the Prime Minister House instead of the presidency.

The government's firm tone was also visible in the statements issued after the meeting. Whereas Haqqani tweeted that he had "requested" the Prime Minister to accept his resignation, the Prime Minister office issued a statement clearly stating that Prime Minister Gilani had asked for Haqqani's resignation. The government seems to be dealing with the matter decisively in an attempt to smooth the ruffled feathers of those targeted in the memo.

Prime Minister Gilani has also ordered, as was expected, an "appropriate level" inquiry into the scandal. However, the shape of the inquiry commission and the nature of the inquiry to be undertaken remain mysteriously vague. Considering the facts of the scandal, it seems unlikely that any conclusive proof will be found to confirm Haqqani's involvement in the sordid affair. Yet it is important for the government to ensure that the inquiry commission is impartial and removed from the influence of the government and the security establishment. A judicial commission might be the best hope to conduct a transparent inquiry.

Husain Haqqani's absence in Washington will be felt the most by the PPP government. He was a live wire in the US capital, impressive at his job, with most effective quality of defusing the toughest situations in a stoic and composed manner. Though he started from humble and very conservative origins, he climbed heights that may well be the envy of many. From president of Karachi University's student union on the Islami Jamiat Tulaba ticket in 1979 and a brief stint as a reporter for a foreign magazine, he quickly endeared himself in power corridors over the next two decades ranging from Zia-ul-Haq, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto.

After he moved to the United States in 2002 to teach at John Hopkins and Boston Universities, Haqqani wrote a book Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military which was a harsh critique of Pakistani military's role in civilian politics. It was his strong opinions about the security establishment and in their interference in civilian matters, as detailed in the book, which led to creating a stronger perception of his guilt in the memogate scandal.

Will Haqqani's exit be the harbinger of a 'domino effect', only time will tell. Yet the next few weeks will be crucial to closely monitor the power negotiations currently at play between Islamabad and Rawalpindi. The military establishment, never too fond of having someone so critical of its actions, has achieved a small victory in Haqqani's removal.

But with the Prime Minister's decision to appoint Sherry Rahman as Haqqani's successor, it seems the negotiations between the establishment and the civilian set-up have managed to agree on a selection which will not hurt the government's position in this power play too much. Sherry Rahman is a famed legislator who is admired for her liberal and pro-democracy views. It remains to be seen, however, how this arrangement functions at the Capitol Hill in the long run.

Published in Business Recorder (24 November 2011)